Weekend football acca: Plenty of goals at Anfield, Rotherham and Doncaster

Can we dig up another juicy winning acca for the football action over the first weekend of September?

Liverpool vs Aston Villa (Both teams to score)

Liverpool’s victory at St James Park last weekend was a massive result for them but they didn’t come out of it unscathed.

Virgil van Dijk’s dismissal means he misses this fixture, weakening a defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet so far this season and will be facing a Villa side that have scored 16 in their five games this term and in all but two of Unai Emery’s 29 games in charge.

Liverpool are very strong at Anfield though and have scored in all but one of their last 43 Premier League home games.

 

 

Rotherham vs Norwich (Over 2.5 goals)

Norwich have been on fire in front of goal so far this season, scoring 13 goals in their four league games. They’ve also only kept one clean sheet, with all four games having over 2.5 goals.

Rotherham’s games have also seen goals, with both teams scoring in all six games they’ve played. The head-to-head record between these two sides also favours this bet, with both teams scoring in all ten meetings played at Rotherham, averaging 3.5 goals per game.

With the way Norwich are playing, and with Rotherham conceding six in the week to Stoke in the Carabao Cup, I’d also expect Norwich to win this one (Norwich to win and over 2.5 goals is available at odds of 6/4).

Carlisle vs Shrewsbury (Under 2.5 goals)

This weekend’s games in League One look very tough to call so I’m going to look at the Under/Over market instead. League One has seen the fewest goals on average in the Football League by a considerable margin.

The third tier has seen just 2.25 goals per game so far, compared to 2.97 in the Premier League, 2.85 in the Championship and 3.22 in League Two.

With goals being in short supply, the matchup which looks like it’ll have the most difficulty in finding goals is Carlisle versus Shrewsbury.

All five of Carlisle’s games have had two goals or fewer and Shrewsbury having just one game that’s seen more than two goals.

Both of these sides have also not created many opportunities, with Cheltenham the only team in the division who have a lower xG total than both Carlisle and Shrewsbury.

 

 

Doncaster vs Swindon (Over 2.5 goals)

As alluded to in the Carlisle-Shrewsbury write-up, League Two has been the place to see goals this season, averaging 3.22 goals per game. The matchup between Doncaster Rovers and Swindon Town looks like a game that could follow this trend on Saturday.

After losing their opening game 1-0 to Harrogate, Doncaster’s next six matches in all competitions have seen 21 goals, an average of 3.5 goals per game.

Despite these being positive stats for backing the over line, it’s Swindon Town’s stats that really stand out.

They’ve played one less game than everyone in the division (except Colchester) yet sit fourth in the table for highest xG with 8.85. Their four games have seen 23 goals, an average of 5.75 goals per game.

They’ve been excellent going forward, as their strong xG numbers suggest, but are also vulnerable at the back, averaging 17.5 shots conceded per game, the highest in the division.

With the odds for both over and under the goal line being pretty much equal, their looks to be lots of value backing goals in this one.

Weekend acca selections:

Liverpool vs Aston Villa Both Teams to Score (4/9)
Rotherham vs Norwich Over 2.5 Goals (8/11)
Carlisle vs Shrewsbury Under 2.5 Goals (4/5)
Doncaster vs Swindon Over 2.5 Goals (17/20)

Odds at time of writing: 7.3/1

 

All prices provided by Planet Sport Bet and could be subject to change

These tips were provided by Rhys Tovey, who runs his AGF football service on Tipstrr