Newmarket each-way tips: Trends point to Vino Victrix and Motazzen for outsider value in Cesarewitch

14:40 Newmarket Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (2 miles 2 furlongs)

 With just a mere 34 runners (!) to whittle down this week, we can hopefully follow up on last weekend’s 25/1 winner and 10/1 third place (advised at 33/1 and 16/1 respectively)

Our trends also gave us a flying start to this Newmarket meeting on Friday, when our tip Inquisitively eased home with a length and a half in hand at better-than-expected SP of 100/30.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Pied Piper finishes in the first 5 places, get a £5 Free Bet!

I am using the trends below to reduce the field to just a few runners to analyse further:

• 20/21 – Aged 4 or older
• 17/21 – Carried under 9st-3lb
• 16/21 – Had won over at least 1m 6f on the flat
• 16/21 – Had run within the last two months
• 15/21 – Finished 4^th or better last time out
• 15/21 – Aged 5 or older
• 14/21 – Returned a double-digit price in the betting
• 13/21 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat
• 12/21 – Had 3 or more flat runs that season
• 12/21 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
• 11/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
• 12/21 – Won by a National Hunt trainer
• 11/21 – Had run at the track before
•   9/21 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat
•   9/21 – The first three home ALL returned at 10/1+
•   9/21 – Placed favourites
•   8/21 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
•   5/21 – Winning mares
•   4/21 – Winning favourites
•   4/21 – Won last time out
•   3/21 – Winners from stall 1
•   3/21 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 5 winners)
•   3/21 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
•   2/21 – Trained by Mark Johnston
•   2/21 - Trained by Brian Meehan
•   2/21 – Trained by Philip Hobbs

With all that information at our disposal, we’ve managed to eliminate plenty to leave us with the following four-runner shortlist: Vino Victrix, Pied Piper, Zenon and Motazzen.

Vino Victrix was second in this race last season off a two-pound higher mark with the same jockey on board except Benoit De La Sayette has since ridden out his claim.

That means Vino Victrix is carrying a pound more than last year; however, to finish second in the race as a four-year-old is the mark of a good horse.

Suggested bet (1): Vino Victrix each-way in the 14:40 at Newmarket (Cesarewitch)

Pied Piper is one of my ten to follow for the jumps season and he is listed as 9/2 favourite, which is a seriously short price in a thirty four runner race. Pied Piper is a classy horse and will have the speed to keep pace with the flat horses.

Zenon is one of several Willie Mullins runners and probably needs some rain to show his best. Saffie Osborne being booked is a plus, as she has been booked for a Mullins raider on the flat previously. 

Saffie also has a big Newmarket win to her name and is one of the most improved jockeys on the flat circuit in the UK.

Motazzen has won over 1 mile 6 furlongs but is another one that is likely to hope that rain comes in time to add soft to the going description. 

He gets into the race off a low mark and carries a penalty for winning last time, which probably resulted in Motazzen making the cut for this race.

Suggested bet (2): Motazzen each-way in the 14:40 at Newmarket (Cesarewitch)

In such a massive field of proven handicappers, there are obviously plenty of likely contenders that can win this race and of those not shortlisted above I do also like the look of Grand Providence, Temporize and The Shunter.

However, from the perspective of this trends analysis, I suggest each-way bets on two horses, namely Vino Victrix and Motazzen, which are available at 12/1 and 50/1 respectively, maybe even higher if you shop around for better odds and enhanced place terms (some bookies are offering 6, 7 or even 8 places).

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Newmarket and York