Newmarket each-way tips: Trends pinpoint Zozimus and Paradias for Cambridgeshire value

15.40 Newmarket: bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) (1 mile 1 furlong)

 A thirty five runner handicap to get our teeth into this weekend with one of the oldest handicaps on the flat, which was first run in 1839 along with the Cesarewitch. 

Last year’s race was won by Mick Channon’s Majestic at 25/1, while the previous two winners were both 40/1 shot, so that gives a measure of the task at hand here.

Using the trends below I am hoping that I end up with a more manageable shortlist for further analysis.

• 21/21 – Aged 6 or younger
• 18/21 – Carried under 9st 6 lb
• 17/21 – Won 3 or more times in their career
• 17/21 – Won from a double-figure stall
• 16/21 – Aged between 4 and 6 years old
• 15/21 – Unplaced favourites
• 15/21 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price
• 14/21 – Had 5 or more runs that season
• 14/21 – Had won over 1 mile 2 furlongs before
• 13/21 – Finished 5^th or better last time out
• 13/21 – Rated between 90-100
• 12/21 – Carried under 8 st 13lb
•   6/21 – Ran at Newbury last time out
•   5/21 – Returned 14/1 in the betting
•   4/21 – Winning favourites
•   4/21 – Trained by John Gosden
•   3/21 – Won their last race
•   2/21 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 in total)
• 15/17 - Had run in the last 9 weeks
•    8/8 - came from stalls 21 or higher
• The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 22/1

The trends produced a shortlist of five runners: Paradias, Storm Catcher, Majestic, Thundering and Zozimus.

Suggested bet (1): Paradias each-way in the 15:40 at Newmarket

 

Paradias is very consistent having finished in the top three nine times in fifteen runs, with wins at Class 3 level backed up by a good run in a Class 2 last time at York.

It will take a career best performance to win this, but Alan King is a canny trainer, and the horse may be coming to a peak for this race.

Storm Catcher has a much better record on all-weather surfaces and all five of his career wins have been away from turf courses. 

He stays the trip and if he settles and takes to the course he could be thereabouts, although there are others with better claims.

Majestic won this race last season off a three-pound lower mark (before five-pound jockey claim), so it is difficult to make a case for him this time. Although Jack Channon has booked Benoit De La Sayette, which is a positive. 

Majestic has been running well without winning this season and has gradually dropped down the weights, but this is challenging off his current mark.

Thundering held off Euchen Glen last time and seems to be still improving. He will need some luck in running as he tends to be held up and with 35 in the field his jockey will have to hope that gaps appear in the final furlong.

Zozimus has had 19 runs on turf without winning once and despite his capable apprentice taking off five pounds on bare form it is hard to see him winning. 

To be fair to Zozimus he has placed six times on turf runs and a few of those have been with claiming jockeys on board, so this could well be a cunning plan for his in-form trainer!

I think with35 runners it is probably prudent to put up two selections and I suggest backing both Zozimus and Paradias each-way and, as ever, look for additional places.

Suggested bet (2): Zozimus each-way in the 15:40 at Newmarket