EFL Saturday acca: Tasty four-fold could bring in a tidy profit
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Football tipster Rhys Tovey is back with four top tips for this weekend's EFL action.
Leeds and Charlton got the job done last weekend but Man City’s needless red card saw Rhys split his four tips.
All of this week's tips are designed to be back and make a profit as singles and you’ll be able to find more on his Tipstrr profile, including his tip for Aston Villa vs Luton Town.
However, if you wish to back all of his weekend tips as a four-fold, that's currently priced at 12/1 with Planet Sport Bet.
EFL betting tips
Leicester -1.5 Asian handicap vs QPR
Middlesbrough vs Stoke City
After an awful start to the season, Middlesbrough have begun to justify their pre-season expectations to challenge at the top end of the table, winning seven games in a row.
They face a Stoke side who I wrongly backed against last week. Stoke then went and beat Leeds in the week, so it might look foolish to back against a side who’ve picked up two wins in the last couple of days.
However, we were rather unfortunate with the Sunderland selection as they outscored Stoke by an xG score of 1.88-0.65.
Stoke’s victory over Leeds in the week also came under fortuitous circumstances, with Leeds missing a penalty and Stoke’s goal coming in the form of an own goal.
Both of those victories came at the bet365 stadium. Stoke’s away form this season has been poor. They’ve picked up just four points from their six matches, scored in only two and conceded in all of them. If Middlesbrough can continue their impressive performances, I’d expect them to win this one.
Leicester City vs Queens Park Rangers
I’m not sure I need to say too much about this one. Leicester are on an eight-match winning run in the league and have won all but one game this season.
They currently sit top of the table with a massive 14-point gap between them and third place. They’ve got the highest xG and scored the most goals in the division. They’ve also won their last four away games by at least two goals.
Their opponents this weekend, Queens Park Rangers, are almost the exact opposite of Leicester. They’ve lost five in a row, only won two games this season and sit in 23rd, one place above the bottom.
They’ve only picked up one point from their five home games, conceding in all five and losing three of them by two or more goals (they lost their last game at Loftus Road 4-0 to Blackburn Rovers).
Saturday’s match is a meeting between the best side in the league and one of if not the worst side in the league. Leicester to win this game by two or more goals looks like good value at 21/20.
Reading vs Portsmouth
Similarly to the previous selection, this is a meeting between the top of the table and 23rd place, with league leaders Portsmouth travelling to Reading this weekend.
Reading are not in a healthy position right now. A 4-point deduction has left them just one point above the bottom of the table, but they would still be in 23rd even without it, having managed just three wins and one draw so far.
A run of four successive defeats has seen calls for the manager to be sacked and with the league leaders coming to town this weekend, confidence will be at an all-time low amongst the home supporters.
Their one saving grace has been their home form this campaign. All ten points (before the deductions) have come at home, with a record of three wins, one draw and two defeats.
Portsmouth themselves are enjoying a wonderful start to the campaign, unbeaten in eighteen games in all competitions.
Their away record is the main risk with this selection. They’ve drawn three of their six games on the road. When you factor in Reading’s solid home form, it probably makes this the riskiest selection of the five.
But, with all of Reading’s problems off the field and the negativity surrounding the club, the 21/20 odds for an extremely confident Portsmouth team to win looks like excellent value.
Gillingham vs Newport County
Looking in from the outside, it’s been a strange start to the season for Gillingham. Despite sitting in the playoff spots, manager Neil Harris was sacked.
At the time of his dismissal, Gillingham had a record of six wins, one draw and four defeats in the league.
The early sacking, coupled with what was an ambitious summer transfer window, points to the club’s wishes to challenge for automatic promotion. Arguably, this is a fixture they should be winning.
In Interim Head Coach Keith Millen’s four games in charge, they’ve picked up two wins and lost two.
They won convincingly away to a strong Swindon team while beating MK Dons and losing to promotion favourites Notts County at home.
Before the season started, Newport were widely tipped to be relegated this year, having seen key players, including four of the back five, depart the club.
After a decent start to the season, results have started to go against the Welsh side, and they’ve slipped down to 19th.
So far this season, they’ve won one of 10 in the league and have lost six of seven on their travels. All but one of those away defeats have been by two or more goals.
goals. As previously mentioned, a side of Gillingham’s calibre should be winning this game, although you can never tell with games in League Two.
Still, I think the 17/20 odds for a home win look like good value.