Ascot each-way tips: Trends suggest Awaal can lead the charge in Balmoral Handicap

In last Saturday’s Cesarewitch our trends horses ran poorly, but Friday’s selection saw Inquisitively answer all the questions and he won cosily at 100/30. 

16.25 Ascot: Balmoral Handicap (1 mile straight)

This week, British Champions day rounds off with the 20-runner Balmoral Handicap, which has been know to be something of a pinstickers’ paradise in previous renewals.

Last year’s edition was won by Shelir, who made a mockery of his 80/1 starting price, while five of the next six finishers also commanded double-digit odds.

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Hopefully we can sort the wheat from the chaff and regain our winning track by using the trends below:

• Just 9 previous runnings
• 8/9 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-6 in weight
• 7/9 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
• 7/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
• 6/9 - Winners drawn 10 or lower
• 4/9 -  Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
• 4/9 - Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
• 3/9 – Trained by David O’Meara
• 2/9 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
• 1/9 - Winning favourite
• Escobar won the race in 2019
• 2022 Winner: Shelir (80/1)
• The average winning SP is 17/1

Fewer trends to go on this week, as Champions Day was only introduced ten years ago, but I have narrowed the field down to a more manageable shortlist of three runners: Awaal, Blue For You and Helm Rock.

Suggested bet: Awaal each-way in the 16:25 at Ascot

Awaal ran well to finish second in a 22-runner field on heavy going back in April and that form on heavy could prove crucial on Saturday.

A draw on either wing is another positive for the straight mile course and with both jockey James Doyle and the Crisford stable being on form Awaal should provide a challenge here.

Blue For You ran well to finish three lengths behind our recent 25/1 winner Atrium at this course over a furlong shorter, which was an excellent performance.

He has also run well on soft and in a big-field handicap, plus he is drawn close to Awaal and has realistic place claims here from the O’Meara stable, which boasts a good record in this race. 

Helm Rock has won or been placed in the first three in almost 50 per cent of 30 career runs and unfortunately pays for this with his handicap mark here. He is a tough battler, but most of his wins have been in lower-class races than this.

He has a middle draw which makes this tough unless his jockey Richard Kingscote hangs back and tacks over to one of the wings.

We were torn between Awaal and Blue For You here, but have gone for Awaal and suggest an each-way bet and to look for additional places. He is currently best priced 14/1 with at least five places on offer with the majority of bookmakers.

 

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Champions Day at Ascot